2023 could be right on the border of recession territory.
As inflation concerns continue to persist in a world still rife with conflict and recovery, the International Monetary Fund has issued a warning that many have been both expecting and dreading: a global economic recession may be imminent.
The IMF released a new report today painting a less-than-ideal picture of the global economy, predicting that global growth will drop down to 2.7% in 2023. In the worst case scenario, it could even drop as low as a flat 2%.
“The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist. “More than a third of the global economy will contract this year or next, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union, and China — will continue to stall.”
While the IMF is expecting inflation to finally taper off by the end of 2022, it will likely take a large portion of 2023 before banks can start returning things back to the way they were.
– The US will expand 1% next year while China will grow 4.4%
– India will expand the most among the world’s biggest economies next year, growing 6.1%
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 11, 2022
“Central banks around the world are now laser-focused on restoring price stability, and the pace of tightening has accelerated sharply,” Gourinchas wrote. “There are risks of both under- and over-tightening.”
“As the global economy is headed for stormy waters, financial turmoil may well erupt, prompting investors to seek the protection of safe-haven investments, such as US Treasuries, and pushing the dollar even higher,” read the IMF’s general statement. “Now is the time for emerging market policymakers to batten down the hatches.”